Dont Worry Miho the Raiders Will Win Again
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Igor Strelkov
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The state of affairs in Eastern Ukraine is critical. Russia and Ukraine are on the brink of an open armed conflict. In this context, many military machine experts advise their opinions and forecasts on the armed forces developments in the region. The position of famous warlord Igor Strelkov is definitely one that deserves special attention.
He became popular during the so-chosen Crimean Spring in 2014. Strelkov took part in the process of the Crimean unification with Russia, after which in Eastern Ukraine, he was ane of the commencement who organized an open up resistance to the nationalist forces that had earlier staged a coup in Kiev. During his military action, he became more and more disquisitional of Kremlin's factual position. Co-ordinate to his later statements, the state of affairs in Donbass remains close to disastrous due to the policy of the definite role of the Russian elite. Asserting his views, Strelkov even got in disharmonize with the Russian President'southward adviser at that fourth dimension Vladislav Surkov. As a result, Strelkov was forced to exit Eastern Ukraine and lost the opportunity to influence in the state of affairs in the region.
In ideology, Strelkov'south vision may be characterized in terms that today go known as "Orthodox socialism." This concept is based on justice, conciliarity, national unity and social responsibility.
Strelkov is widely known as a potent supporter of the so-called "Russian globe" concept. This term despite the using of the give-and-take "Russian" has zero to do with nationalism or a hurrah-patriotic adherence to the ideas of monarchism.
"The Russian world (Pax Rossica) is the social totality associated with Russian civilization. Russkiy Mir is the core civilisation of Russia and is in interaction with the diverse cultures of Russia through traditions, history and the Russian language. It comprises likewise the Russian diaspora with its influence in the earth. The concept is based on the notion of "Russianness", and both accept been considered ambiguous. The Russian globe and sensation of information technology arose through Russian history and was shaped by the corresponding period.
The term received a new sound in the 21st century confronting the background of the restoration of the strange policy influence of the Russian land, on the one manus, and the intensifying attacks on Russian culture and the Russian language in the quondam Soviet republics, on the other.
Today the "Russian globe" is often indicated as a threat in speeches of Moscow'southward geopolitical rivals, justifying the need to contain Russian federation."
In the politic field, Strelkov is a supporter of the disciplinarian strong Russian land, where social life is based on the principles indicated above.
In military terms, during the hostilities in 2014-2015 and to the present, he claimed that the merely chance to ensure peace in Eastern Ukraine was a full participation of the Russian army and taking command of the Ukrainian territory at least to the Dnieper River.
Thus, Igor Strelkov is a rather controversial person. Nonetheless, he is one of the few alive warlords of the 2014-2015 period, who deeply knows the situation inside the region, simultaneously beingness a indomitable critic of Kremlin policy. His analysis is very valuable for predicting the situation and simulation of possible developments.
"At the cease of the day:
ane. The war between Russia and Ukraine is inevitable, but at the moment (in Apr), it is very likely;
2. For Russia and the Russian People, war "now" is preferable to war after;
3. The United states at present will non fight for Ukraine with 99% probability;
4. Comments were disabled, I will not answer clarifying questions in private letters." – Strelkov wrote in Telegram and Vkontakte.
On Apr iv, he published a post on his Telegram aqueduct reflecting his opinion on the electric current situation in Eastern Ukraine. In that location were 3 main ideas:
The first i was that the war between Russia and Ukraine is inevitable, but at the moment (in April), it is very likely.
Many military experts agree with his stance about land of diplomacy in the region.
The evolution of the current political situation in Russia, whatever directions information technology would motility in, sooner or later will pb to an armed disharmonize with Ukraine. No thing which side would instigate the conflict. If the ability remains in the easily of the so-called "Putin's team", the conflict will develop according to the current scenario and, every bit a outcome, most likely it will dissolve into armed one in short or mid terms. Even in case of radical changes in Russia and the coming to power of pro-Western opposition, the escalation would not exist avoided. The Ukrainian military thought is based on the cadre ideas of deoccupation of the Eastern regions and taking control, in its further accelerate, over a skilful part of Russian territory. For example, it is referring to the Rostov, Krasnodar and even Volgograd regions. Thus, the weakening of Russia every bit a result of internal political turmoils may lead to the decision of the current Ukrainian leadership to start a major military operation in the regions with strategic goal to give checkmate to the Russia.
Secondly, for Russia and the Russian People, war "now" is preferable to war later.
Igor Strelkov adheres to this position throughout the entire conflict in Ukraine. The longer the disharmonize drags on, the more the nationalist authorities that came to power in Ukraine strengthens. At the same time in Russia, the so-chosen "Crimean effect", i.e. social excitement, build-up acquired by Russian geopolitical successes in 2014-2016, is weakening. In previous years, this phenomenon contributed to increase the level of support for the Putin's regime.
Today, when the conflict in Eastern Ukraine has been persisting for 7 years, whatsoever attempts to settle it peacefully are ineffective. Because the complicated political situation in Russia, there are no signs that the electric current government has plant a recipe to preclude farther internal deterioration. Thus, the longer the hot stage of the conflict would exist postponed, the worse the weather condition of the Russian side would be.
In its turn, the hot phase of the disharmonize in Eastern Ukraine may go a kind of medicine necessary for Moscow that would be used as an internal unifying cistron.
Thirdly, the Usa now volition not fight for Ukraine with 99% probability.
Firstly, one should take into account the electric current domestic political situation in the U.s.a., where a transitional period with the new government is taking place. A participation in a military conflict is possible only if there are threats to a central ally of the Americans, which Ukraine is non.
Secondly, the global foreign policy state of affairs is non favorable for the deployment of United states forces far beyond the state's borders. The Biden administration must start of all face the growing global influence of Communist china, which is also likely to exist indirectly involved in the military conflict in Ukraine, for instance, through financial support. On Apr 2, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov received Zhang Hanhui, Ambassador of the People's Republic of Cathay to the Russia. The exact topics that were discussed during the negotiations were not unveiled, but it is not difficult to assume that the military machine escalation in the Donbass region became part of the talks.
At the aforementioned time, the position of the United States in the Centre East is not stable. The Biden administration is actively working to regulate the relations with key partners in the region, developing its position on the main issues, including the Iranian nuclear deal, the Syrian crunch, the situation in Iraq, etc.
At the moment, Washington has a number of problems of paramount importance for maintaining its global influence, which does not let it to openly intervene in the approaching war in Ukraine. Yet, in the nigh future, in a yr or more than, the Biden administration will strengthen U.s. positions in key regions. Zero will be able to comprise information technology.
More than ON THE TOPIC:
- Kremlin Replies On Situation In Eastern Ukraine
- Kiev Continues On The War Path, Emboldened By False Promises (Map Update)
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Source: https://southfront.org/war-between-russia-and-ukraine-is-inevitable-opinion/
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